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Humans have thrived on our planet due to a particular set of conditions that in combinationhave created a liveable planet. Those conditions are now changing beyond what we’ve ever experienced before. And they’re changing exponentially – more of, and faster.
What will it mean for Nelson Mandela Bay?
Why should we care?
On our current trajectory we expect our metro and our ecosystems will experience the following big changes:
Our changing weather patterns will bring much tougher conditions
Our economy will significantly shift its base
Our diverse natural environment will rapidly decline
Our unsafe communities will continue to spiral downwards
In combination, the changes above act together to create a vicious circle. Things are getting worse not better. But there is always both risk and opportunity in change. We are blessed with unique natural and human resources, which if used sustainably and equitably can change things for the better. We are not doomed, it is possible to create a virtuous cycle. But it means acting now, acting collectively, and acting equitably.
Why it matters:
The planet’s overall conditions have changed over the millennia primarily due to it being a land and water sphere wobbling on its axis around the sun, interspersed with planetary events such as tectonic movements, large volcano eruptions, plants growing rapidly and a meteor strike. But in the last 200 years the changes have been contrary to those natural cycles and events.
And the cause of those changes is now clear – humans supporting their consumer lifestyles. We’ve been burning fossil fuels in increasing amounts; we’ve been extracting resources (like trees and fish and minerals) from our natural environment at unsustainable levels; we’ve been polluting the air, land and oceans with toxic human waste; and we’ve been destroying the natural ecosystems on land and in the sea through our farming, industrial and other practices.
All of that human activity has combined to create a cumulative effect that is in the main doing two things: changing the climate by warming the atmosphere, and reducing the health and extent of the planet’s biodiversity.
On the climate side, that means our weather patterns will change – it will get dryer, hotter and windier. We’ll go through periods of low rainfall with regular rain “bombs”, so more drought and flooding. Because of the warming, sea water will expand and ice sheets will melt raising the sea levels. That means more coastal erosion, storm surges and flooding of low lying areas. With the air becoming dryer and hotter, the vegetation dries out and wildfires become more common and more extensive. And warmer air and higher humidity can become too much for human bodies to handle, and our natural cooling mechanisms stop working when the heat waves arrive.
On the biodiversity side, many plant and animal species are rapidly going extinct, so much so that it’s been labelled the “sixth extinction event” by many. By illustration of how humans have impacted biodiversity, there are now more cows on the planet today (by biomass) than there are wild mammals combined. We know that diversity is the foundation of healthy ecosystems, and that healthy ecosystems are better at adapting to changes in the weather – they are resilient. But that resilience has been built over thousands of years of adaptation, and is being destroyed in decades – too quickly for natural systems to adapt.
In turn, while humans are adaptable, we can move, we can build, or we can create technology to help us, it takes money and resources to do so. In addition, the changes across the planet will not impact all equally; the Southern hemisphere, coastal areas, people living on flood plains, people living in cities, people living in informal settlements, will be impacted more than others. That in turn will lead to mass migration, and will increase poverty and result in more broken neighbourhoods. The social consequences will also negatively impact local and international relations, with more conflict and wars for scarce resources like water, and locally cause an increase in disease, xenophobia, discrimination, crime, and substance abuse, amongst other.
In short, life for our children is going to become harder over the next decades, not easier. Unless we act now to anticipate the change, change our lifestyles to reduce our impact on the planet, and build up the resilience of our ecosystems and communities.
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11 Newington Road,
Central, Port Elizabeth,
South Africa, 6001
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