Podcast
Scoping Report

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Humans have thrived on our planet due to a particular set of conditions that in combinationhave created a liveable planet. Those conditions are now changing beyond what we’ve ever experienced before. And they’re changing exponentially – more of, and faster.

What Can We Do
Climate Resilient Nelson Mandela Bay

What will it mean for Nelson Mandela Bay?
Why should we care?

On our current trajectory we expect our metro and our ecosystems will experience the following big changes:

Our changing weather patterns will bring much tougher conditions

Drought will be the norm, but interrupted with high rainfall events – so we can expect water shortages and flooding in rivers and flood plains. The air will become hotter and drier – so we can expect regular heat waves and wildfires. The sea will rise – so we can expect storm surge and higher seas which means communities on the sea front and the Swartkops estuary will be at risk. Imagine no sand on our beaches? All of this puts our aging infrastructure at risk too, more pipe bursts, more drain blockages, more roads washed away, more raw sewage in the streets and rivers, and more power outages.

Our economy will significantly shift its base

Currently our two-port city’s economy is centred on manufacturing vehicles driven by internal combustion engines (petrol and diesel) and their components. Within a decade we will see human transport being dominated by electric driven vehicles – either via batteries or fuel cells powered by hydrogen or ammonia. That means shutting some types of manufacturers and starting new ones, which will impact jobs, skills needed, and ultimately our manufacturing base. Nationally we will also be impacted by the shift from coal-based electricity generation to wind and solar based generation – the shift from fossil fuels to renewables. Internationally we will find it more difficult to export our products if not made in low-carbon ways and means, and cities who adapt quicker or are closer to the main markets will have an advantage over our local manufacturers.

Our diverse natural environment will rapidly decline

Already our African penguins are likely to become functionally extinct by the middle of the next decade. The Swartkops estuary isn’t safe to swim in, and the fledgling shellfish industry in our bay is under threat from high levels of E.coli in the water. A warming sea and changing wind patterns will impact our currents and sea temperatures, impacting in turn our reefs and sea life. Algae blooms (aka red tides) will become more regular. And alien vegetation is clogging up our watercourses and drinking our rivers dry. We are currently a biodiversity hot-spot of global significance, but with no action to restore and conserve our natural resources, we are on course to becoming a wasteland.

Our unsafe communities will continue to spiral downwards

Already we list amongst the world’s highest murder rates, in the main due to gang warfare over drug territories. But not only, ordinary citizens are fearful to walk their own streets at night, muggings of tourists and residents are commonplace during the day, and our infrastructure is being stolen piece by piece by copper and other thieves. Unemployment (especially youth) and poverty and inequality remain primary challenges. We still largely live in the communities apartheid and colonialism placed us in. Which means parts of our city are better serviced than others. Which means part of our metro have access to better resources than others. All of that combines to create an image of a city in decline, where inequality is increasing, a place you don’t want to live, and a place less able to cope with the challenges of climate change.

In combination, the changes above act together to create a vicious circle. Things are getting worse not better. But there is always both risk and opportunity in change. We are blessed with unique natural and human resources, which if used sustainably and equitably can change things for the better. We are not doomed, it is possible to create a virtuous cycle. But it means acting now, acting collectively, and acting equitably.

Why it matters:

The planet’s overall conditions have changed over the millennia primarily due to it being a land and water sphere wobbling on its axis around the sun, interspersed with planetary events such as tectonic movements, large volcano eruptions, plants growing rapidly and a meteor strike. But in the last 200 years the changes have been contrary to those natural cycles and events.

And the cause of those changes is now clear – humans supporting their consumer lifestyles. We’ve been burning fossil fuels in increasing amounts; we’ve been extracting resources (like trees and fish and minerals) from our natural environment at unsustainable levels; we’ve been polluting the air, land and oceans with toxic human waste; and we’ve been destroying the natural ecosystems on land and in the sea through our farming, industrial and other practices.

All of that human activity has combined to create a cumulative effect that is in the main doing two things: changing the climate by warming the atmosphere, and reducing the health and extent of the planet’s biodiversity.

On the climate side, that means our weather patterns will change – it will get dryer, hotter and windier. We’ll go through periods of low rainfall with regular rain “bombs”, so more drought and flooding. Because of the warming, sea water will expand and ice sheets will melt raising the sea levels. That means more coastal erosion, storm surges and flooding of low lying areas. With the air becoming dryer and hotter, the vegetation dries out and wildfires become more common and more extensive. And warmer air and higher humidity can become too much for human bodies to handle, and our natural cooling mechanisms stop working when the heat waves arrive.

On the biodiversity side, many plant and animal species are rapidly going extinct, so much so that it’s been labelled the “sixth extinction event” by many. By illustration of how humans have impacted biodiversity, there are now more cows on the planet today (by biomass) than there are wild mammals combined. We know that diversity is the foundation of healthy ecosystems, and that healthy ecosystems are better at adapting to changes in the weather – they are resilient. But that resilience has been built over thousands of years of adaptation, and is being destroyed in decades – too quickly for natural systems to adapt.

In turn, while humans are adaptable, we can move, we can build, or we can create technology to help us, it takes money and resources to do so. In addition, the changes across the planet will not impact all equally; the Southern hemisphere, coastal areas, people living on flood plains, people living in cities, people living in informal settlements, will be impacted more than others. That in turn will lead to mass migration, and will increase poverty and result in more broken neighbourhoods. The social consequences will also negatively impact local and international relations, with more conflict and wars for scarce resources like water, and locally cause an increase in disease, xenophobia, discrimination, crime, and substance abuse, amongst other.  

In short, life for our children is going to become harder over the next decades, not easier. Unless we act now to anticipate the change, change our lifestyles to reduce our impact on the planet, and build up the resilience of our ecosystems and communities.

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What Can We Do

We are not powerless, we can make an impact, here’s some suggestions

At home:
• We already know about water conservation, like 2-minute showers in a water basin/bucket, using grey water to flush our loos, catching the rain and storing it in tanks, and using indigenous drought–tolerant plants in our gardens. We need to make these lessons our daily practice.

• And we can help by recycling, sorting our waste into paper, plastic, glass and other and finding a service provider to pick them up or taking them to a recycling facility.

• We can conserve our energy use, by switching off lights in rooms not being used, by using low-energy appliances, by hanging clothes out to dry not tumble-drying them, or by installing solar panels on our roofs as an example.

• We can look after our verge and open areas close to us. Picking up litter outside your yard prevents it from being swept into the river or sea. Keeping a small area free of alien plants helps our overall biodiversity.

• Importantly, as a consumer, what you buy makes a huge difference. Are you remembering to use recyclable shopping bags, are you buying “naked” (not wrapped in plastic) fruit and vegetables, does your favourite brand use sustainable sources, are you minimising your meat consumption, growing your own veggies?

At work:
Many businesses are introducing (or have existing) sustainability practices into their workplaces and manufacturing processes. Often referred to as ESG (environment, social, and governance) it includes activities such as sourcing from low- or zero-carbon use suppliers and materials, to recycling material, to rainwater harvesting, to introducing energy and water efficiency technology and machinery, to equitable employment practices.

See here for a brief explainer https://medium.com/carbonclick/what-is-esg-and-why-is-it-important-f9036bb96d66

In essence it means that businesses assess the impact their value-chains and products have on the environment and people, and look at meaningful ways to reduce or change those impacts.

In my community:
Communities can play a critical role in building resilience. Many community-based projectsor groups exist across the metro that have organised themselves to look after green spaces (Friends–of, or conservancy groups) on a voluntary basis. They often work collaboratively with non-profit organisations, or the municipality, or the local business chamber/cluster. Join up with them, volunteer your time. And community initiatives also include neighbourhood watches that supplement police or private security services and report infrastructure issues such as sewer and water leaks.

Your local councillor and ward committee are key allies and resources in building resilience locally. Advocate for a local development plan of your community, for environmental management plans and for the municipality to deliver against its Integrated Development Plans (IDP) and Spatial Development Frameworks (SDF’s). Check your ward councillor’s voting record on sustainability issues and give them feedback.

Schools and churches/mosques/temples within your communities can be encouraged and supported in becoming recycling centres, or education nodes, or platforms for environmental organisations to explain their initiatives. Kids organised into eco-clubs can be a powerful community force for positive change. Teachers can very effectively include local ecosystem information into their lesson plans.

Climate Resilient Nelson Mandela Bay

Why focus on climate resilience?
Building a climate resilient metro is a critical intervention in adapting and mitigating climate change. Because the daily weather impacts everything we do, because the seasons shape our lives and businesses, climate change doesn’t restrict itself to a single issue, or area, or government department. Climate change impacts everything and everyone. It’s important to understand that the biosphere, the natural ecosystems that sustain life on our planet, including ourselves, are all complex systems. Complex systems are shaped by their environment and interdependent variables, consequently a change in the environment or in one variable brings about change in others.  In the United Nation’s most recent report on climate change, called the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, see here https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ ), greater emphasis isincreasingly being placed on the issue of building resilience. In previous reports much of the attention was paid to mitigation (reducing global emissions) and adaptation (protecting against the threats) initiatives. In this latest report, more attention is now being paid to how we incorporate mitigation and adaptation priorities into sustainable development, and how we build (decision) pathways to achieve the goal of a sustainable planet.

What is climate resilience?
The Union of Concerned Scientists defines “climate resilience” as:

Climate resilience is about successfully coping with and managing the impacts of climate change while preventing those impacts from growing worse. A climate resilient society would be low-carbon and equipped to deal with the realities of a warmer world. See (https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/what-climate-resilience#:~:text=Climate%20resilience%20is%20about%20successfully,realities%20of%20a%20warmer%20world.)  In turn the IPCC in its AR6 defines “resilience” as …the capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure as well as biodiversity in case of ecosystems while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is a positive attribute when it maintains such a capacity for adaptation, learning, and/or transformation.

See page 7 in https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf

In short, resilience is about our metro’s ability to take the knocks, to bounce-back from the changes and extreme events climate change will bring, and to remain healthy. Building climate resilience in turn, is about our ability as a society to learn from the past, and to adapt to what’s coming through making choices today that shape our future. Our metro is well-known for its Ironman triathlon events. Triathlete’s are resilient, they keep going, and they can take the knocks on the day, like tough seas, strong headwinds, falls, tumbles, equipment failure and the like. And their resilience comes from months of hard practice and learning. The difference in this case, is that we don’t know the exact race and conditions we will face in 2055, we have some clues, we have some information, and so our race preparation needs to be more extensive. And we need to start our training and learning programme today.

How are we doing?
See our recently completed Scoping and Analysis Report that details where we are at as a metro. It’s a draft report, and a “living” document that we update as we get new or more detail from the metro’s stakeholders.

But in short, not well, is the answer to the question. There are pockets of hope in the local initiatives run by community or citizen initiatives, and the activist Business Chamber has adopted “sustain” as one of its core priorities, but overall, when we look at measures such as water consumption, water quality, infrastructure maintenance, etc. our metro is on a downward trend – we’re building a vicious circle. (see the latest Green and Blue Drop reports https://ws.dws.gov.za/iris/releases/GDWR.pdfand https://ws.dws.gov.za/iris/releases/BDN_2023_Report.pdf as examples of our progress)

As part of the project’s deliverable’s, we intend creating a “dashboard” of measurements that ordinary citizens can use to evaluate the metro’s performance. Our initial list includes the following:

1. Murder (Incidents and rate – SAPS publish data)
2. Unemployment rate (StatsSA rate)
3. HDI (Human Development Index) and Gini Coefficient – poverty and inequality
4. Number of times council has sat properly (proper notice, no postponement, full agenda addressed, quorate, number of councillors present)
5. Number of times council sub-committees have sat properly (meant to meet once a quarter)
6. Green Drop Score (sewage)
7. Blue Drop Score (water quality)
8. Percentage of capital budget spent
9. Percentage of maintenance budget spent
10. Number of vacancies at Executive Director and Director Level (past 3 months)
11. Collection rate (budget vs actual – what % of rates are being collected)
12. Water losses (source to tap)
13. Electricity losses (billed vs paid) and outages
14. Grant funding expenditure (original allocation, % spent by 31 Dec, any grants withheld and for what reason)

We’d love to hear your input on what measures will give us a good indication of how we’re doing. Send us an email at: talk2us@climatesmartnmb.co.za

What could a climate resilient Nelson Mandela Bay look like in 2055?

How do we build – the pathways approach

There’s an old wisdom that the only exact prediction of the future we can make is that no prediction of the future will be exact. And the reason for this in the case of climate change comes down to two things: although we know plenty we don’t know enough to be exact; and we don’t know what we’ll (humans) do in response. But we certainly do more today than we did ten years ago, and we know enough to make good choices and to guide our future actions. And we also know that acting today, gives us more options than if we act tomorrow – proactive actions are key in building resilience.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – a United Nations initiative) deals with this uncertainty in two main ways: its projections use scenarios (and levels of confidence) to create a range of possible futures; and it calls for creating climate resilient development (CRD) pathways – adaptive decision-making processes that constantly course-correct to achieve a climate resilient outcome.

Here’s what the IPCC say’s
A pathway can be defined as a trajectory in time, reflecting a particular sequence of actions and consequences against a background of autonomous developments, leading to a specific future situation’ (Haasnoot et al., 2013; Bourgeois, 2015). As such, a pathway represents changes over time in response to policies and practices, as well spontaneous and exogenous events. For example, the SR1.5 report suggested that CRD pathways are ‘a conceptual and aspirational idea for steering societies towards low-carbon, prosperous and ecologically safe futures’ (Roy et al., 2018: 468), and a way to highlight the complexity of decision making processes at different levels. Here, consistent with the aforementioned definition of CRD, we define CRD pathways as development trajectories that successfully integrate mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development. (See # 18.1.2 at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-18/)

And at the heart of this project is the work of not just anticipating the future (based on current trajectories), but identifying a desired future outcome, and then choosing pathways that will get us there. We’d love your input on this. What future do we want? What issues should we focus on, what decisions should we take, and what interventions should we undertake to get us there?

Send us an email at: talk2us@climatesmartnmb.co.za with your thoughts and recommendations

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